2025 Week 14 · Final
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, final 20–10
Pregame first read
HOU run defense has the stronger league profile.
KC run game #15/32 · HOU run defense #4/32 · 127 offense / 113 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- PK
- Model total
- 44.5
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -13.6 to +19.3
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingC.J. StroudHOU203 pass yds
- RushingWoody MarksHOU68 rush yds
- ReceivingNico CollinsHOU121 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#5/32HOU pass defense#6/32
- KC run game#15/32HOU run defense#4/32
- HOU passing attack#18/32KC pass defense#27/32
- HOU run game#27/32KC run defense#16/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
HOUHouston Texans
- C.J. StroudQB · 9 games220pass yds/g
- Woody MarksRB · 12 games40.5rush yds/g
- Nico CollinsWR · 11 games72.3rec yds/g
- Dalton SchultzTE · 12 games46rec yds/g
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 12 games270pass yds/g
- Kareem HuntRB · 12 games42.9rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 6 games81rec yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 12 games59.9rec yds/g