2025 Week 14 · Final
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, final 34–10
Pregame first read
MIA run defense has the stronger league profile.
NYJ run game #18/32 · MIA run defense #3/32 · 149 offense / 128 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- MIA -2
- Model total
- 42.5
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -15.8 to +17.1
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingBrady CookNYJ163 pass yds
- RushingJaylen WrightMIA107 rush yds
- ReceivingMason TaylorNYJ51 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#19/32MIA pass defense#19/32
- NYJ run game#18/32MIA run defense#3/32
- MIA passing attack#13/32NYJ pass defense#23/32
- MIA run game#19/32NYJ run defense#29/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
MIAMiami Dolphins
- Tua TagovailoaQB · 12 games190pass yds/g
- De'Von AchaneRB · 12 games86.2rush yds/g
- Tyreek HillWR · 4 games66.3rec yds/g
- Jaylen WaddleWR · 12 games63.5rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Tyrod TaylorQB · 5 games155pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 12 games69.5rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 7 games56.4rec yds/g
- Adonai MitchellWR · 3 games51.3rec yds/g