AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 14 · Final

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 24–20

NONONew Orleans Saints24TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers20

Pregame first read

TB run defense has the stronger league profile.

NO run game #31/32 · TB run defense #6/32 · 119 offense / 102 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
TB -2.5
Model total
42.5
80% range (TB margin)
-11.4 to +21.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TB passing attack#30/32NO pass defense#12/32
  • TB run game#5/32NO run defense#12/32
  • NO passing attack#29/32TB pass defense#21/32
  • NO run game#31/32TB run defense#6/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NONew Orleans Saints

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers