AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 15 · Final

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 29–28

ATLATLAtlanta Falcons29TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers28

Pregame first read

TB run game has the stronger league profile.

TB run game #5/32 · ATL run defense #21/32 · 152 offense / 146 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
TB -2
Model total
45
80% range (TB margin)
-12.2 to +21.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TB passing attack#28/32ATL pass defense#17/32
  • TB run game#5/32ATL run defense#21/32
  • ATL passing attack#22/32TB pass defense#31/32
  • ATL run game#14/32TB run defense#12/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers