2025 Week 15 · Final
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, final 35–31
Pregame first read
NE passing attack has the stronger league profile.
NE passing attack #2/32 · BUF pass defense #14/32 · 172 offense / 145 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NE -2.5
- Model total
- 48
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -11.4 to +22.0
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingJosh AllenBUF193 pass yds
- RushingTreVeyon HendersonNE148 rush yds
- ReceivingKhalil ShakirBUF65 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#2/32BUF pass defense#14/32
- NE run game#22/32BUF run defense#30/32
- BUF passing attack#5/32NE pass defense#10/32
- BUF run game#21/32NE run defense#22/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
BUFBuffalo Bills
- Josh AllenQB · 13 games237pass yds/g
- James CookRB · 13 games101rush yds/g
- Dalton KincaidTE · 9 games54.3rec yds/g
- Khalil ShakirWR · 13 games45rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 13 games262pass yds/g
- TreVeyon HendersonRB · 13 games48.1rush yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 13 games54.2rec yds/g
- Hunter HenryTE · 13 games46.9rec yds/g