2025 Week 15 · Final
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, final 16–13
Pregame first read
LAC pass defense has the stronger league profile.
KC passing attack #17/32 · LAC pass defense #5/32 · 208 offense / 150 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- KC -1
- Model total
- 44.5
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -13.1 to +20.4
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingJustin HerbertLAC210 pass yds
- RushingOmarion HamptonLAC61 rush yds
- ReceivingTravis KelceKC70 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#17/32LAC pass defense#5/32
- KC run game#11/32LAC run defense#2/32
- LAC passing attack#27/32KC pass defense#30/32
- LAC run game#15/32KC run defense#14/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
LACLos Angeles Chargers
- Justin HerbertQB · 13 games229pass yds/g
- Kimani VidalRB · 9 games65.2rush yds/g
- Ladd McConkeyWR · 13 games53.5rec yds/g
- Keenan AllenWR · 13 games49.5rec yds/g
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 13 games261pass yds/g
- Kareem HuntRB · 13 games41.9rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 7 games74.3rec yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 13 games55.9rec yds/g