AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 15 · Final

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers, final 15–28

MIAMIAMiami Dolphins15PITPITPittsburgh Steelers28

Pregame first read

MIA run game has the stronger league profile.

MIA run game #10/32 · PIT run defense #25/32 · 150 offense / 167 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIA -2.5
Model total
45
80% range (PIT margin)
-16.4 to +17.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • PIT passing attack#23/32MIA pass defense#14/32
  • PIT run game#12/32MIA run defense#8/32
  • MIA passing attack#15/32PIT pass defense#10/32
  • MIA run game#10/32PIT run defense#25/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

PITPittsburgh Steelers