AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 15 · Final

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 20–48

NYJNYJNew York Jets20JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars48

Pregame first read

JAX pass defense has the stronger league profile.

NYJ passing attack #31/32 · JAX pass defense #3/32 · 149 offense / 213 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -5
Model total
44.5
80% range (JAX margin)
-9.3 to +24.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#13/32NYJ pass defense#21/32
  • JAX run game#27/32NYJ run defense#28/32
  • NYJ passing attack#31/32JAX pass defense#3/32
  • NYJ run game#25/32JAX run defense#19/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NYJNew York Jets

JAXJacksonville Jaguars