AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 16 · Final

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals, final 26–19

ATLATLAtlanta Falcons26ARIARIArizona Cardinals19

Pregame first read

ATL run defense has the stronger league profile.

ARI run game #26/32 · ATL run defense #10/32 · 89 offense / 127 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
ATL -2.5
Model total
51.5
80% range (ARI margin)
-16.3 to +17.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ARI passing attack#19/32ATL pass defense#17/32
  • ARI run game#26/32ATL run defense#10/32
  • ATL passing attack#17/32ARI pass defense#29/32
  • ATL run game#16/32ARI run defense#28/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

ARIArizona Cardinals