AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 16 · Final

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns, final 23–20

BUFBUFBuffalo Bills23CLECLECleveland Browns20

Pregame first read

BUF pass defense has the stronger league profile.

CLE passing attack #31/32 · BUF pass defense #7/32 · 164 offense / 150 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -6
Model total
47.5
80% range (CLE margin)
-20.0 to +13.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CLE passing attack#31/32BUF pass defense#7/32
  • CLE run game#31/32BUF run defense#31/32
  • BUF passing attack#6/32CLE pass defense#5/32
  • BUF run game#7/32CLE run defense#18/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

CLECleveland Browns