AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 16 · Final

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins, final 45–21

CINCINCincinnati Bengals45MIAMIAMiami Dolphins21

Pregame first read

MIA run defense has the stronger league profile.

CIN run game #29/32 · MIA run defense #12/32 · 126 offense / 132 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIA -3.5
Model total
48.5
80% range (MIA margin)
-10.4 to +23.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#15/32CIN pass defense#18/32
  • MIA run game#5/32CIN run defense#20/32
  • CIN passing attack#24/32MIA pass defense#11/32
  • CIN run game#29/32MIA run defense#12/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CINCincinnati Bengals

MIAMiami Dolphins