AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 16 · Final

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos, final 34–20

JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars34DENDENDenver Broncos20

Pregame first read

JAX run defense has the stronger league profile.

DEN run game #24/32 · JAX run defense #6/32 · 129 offense / 107 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -1
Model total
49
80% range (DEN margin)
-15.0 to +18.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#7/32JAX pass defense#1/32
  • DEN run game#24/32JAX run defense#6/32
  • JAX passing attack#4/32DEN pass defense#12/32
  • JAX run game#27/32DEN run defense#21/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

DENDenver Broncos