AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 16 · Final

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans, final 9–26

KCKCKansas City Chiefs9TENTENTennessee Titans26

Pregame first read

TEN run defense has the stronger league profile.

KC run game #20/32 · TEN run defense #11/32 · 128 offense / 126 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
KC -7.5
Model total
43.5
80% range (TEN margin)
-21.3 to +12.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TEN passing attack#25/32KC pass defense#22/32
  • TEN run game#8/32KC run defense#4/32
  • KC passing attack#20/32TEN pass defense#28/32
  • KC run game#20/32TEN run defense#11/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

TENTennessee Titans