AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 16 · Final

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys, final 34–17

LACLACLos Angeles Chargers34DALDALDallas Cowboys17

Pregame first read

LAC run defense has the stronger league profile.

DAL run game #15/32 · LAC run defense #5/32 · 132 offense / 125 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
LAC -2.5
Model total
51
80% range (DAL margin)
-16.1 to +17.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DAL passing attack#8/32LAC pass defense#3/32
  • DAL run game#15/32LAC run defense#5/32
  • LAC passing attack#26/32DAL pass defense#26/32
  • LAC run game#22/32DAL run defense#26/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LACLos Angeles Chargers

DALDallas Cowboys