AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 16 · Final

Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans, final 21–23

LVLVLas Vegas Raiders21HOUHOUHouston Texans23

Pregame first read

HOU pass defense has the stronger league profile.

LV passing attack #30/32 · HOU pass defense #4/32 · 192 offense / 187 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -11
Model total
40
80% range (HOU margin)
-2.8 to +30.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#11/32LV pass defense#31/32
  • HOU run game#28/32LV run defense#16/32
  • LV passing attack#30/32HOU pass defense#4/32
  • LV run game#32/32HOU run defense#15/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LVLas Vegas Raiders

HOUHouston Texans