AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 16 · Final

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens, final 28–24

NENENew England Patriots28BALBALBaltimore Ravens24

Pregame first read

BAL run game has the stronger league profile.

BAL run game #1/32 · NE run defense #29/32 · 142 offense / 134 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -0.5
Model total
44
80% range (BAL margin)
-14.5 to +18.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BAL passing attack#32/32NE pass defense#10/32
  • BAL run game#1/32NE run defense#29/32
  • NE passing attack#5/32BAL pass defense#15/32
  • NE run game#6/32BAL run defense#1/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

BALBaltimore Ravens