AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 16 · Final

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions, final 29–24

PITPITPittsburgh Steelers29DETDETDetroit Lions24

Pregame first read

PIT passing attack has the stronger league profile.

PIT passing attack #9/32 · DET pass defense #25/32 · 154 offense / 190 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DET -2
Model total
51
80% range (DET margin)
-11.7 to +21.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DET passing attack#14/32PIT pass defense#13/32
  • DET run game#12/32PIT run defense#22/32
  • PIT passing attack#9/32DET pass defense#25/32
  • PIT run game#10/32DET run defense#14/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

PITPittsburgh Steelers

DETDetroit Lions