AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 16 · Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, final 20–23

TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers20CARCARCarolina Panthers23

Pregame first read

TB run game has the stronger league profile.

TB run game #4/32 · CAR run defense #27/32 · 152 offense / 142 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
PK
Model total
42
80% range (CAR margin)
-13.7 to +19.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CAR passing attack#10/32TB pass defense#30/32
  • CAR run game#30/32TB run defense#9/32
  • TB passing attack#28/32CAR pass defense#24/32
  • TB run game#4/32CAR run defense#27/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

CARCarolina Panthers