2025 Week 17 · Final
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers, final 38–42
Pregame first read
CHI run game has the stronger league profile.
CHI run game #4/32 · SF run defense #18/32 · 161 offense / 100 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- SF -1
- Model total
- 51
- 80% range (SF margin)
- -13.4 to +20.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingCaleb WilliamsCHI330 pass yds
- RushingChristian McCaffreySF140 rush yds
- ReceivingLuther Burden IIICHI138 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- SF passing attack#2/32CHI pass defense#12/32
- SF run game#10/32CHI run defense#15/32
- CHI passing attack#18/32SF pass defense#13/32
- CHI run game#4/32SF run defense#18/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
CHIChicago Bears
- Caleb WilliamsQB · 15 games227pass yds/g
- D'Andre SwiftRB · 14 games70.9rush yds/g
- Rome OdunzeWR · 12 games55.1rec yds/g
- DJ MooreWR · 15 games44.3rec yds/g
SFSan Francisco 49ers
- Brock PurdyQB · 7 games248pass yds/g
- Christian McCaffreyRB · 15 games69.3rush yds/g
- George KittleTE · 10 games59.9rec yds/g
- Ricky PearsallWR · 8 games55.4rec yds/g