2025 Week 17 · Final
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers, final 20–16
Pregame first read
LAC run defense has the stronger league profile.
HOU run game #28/32 · LAC run defense #1/32 · 145 offense / 132 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- LAC -1
- Model total
- 42
- 80% range (LAC margin)
- -13.4 to +20.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingC.J. StroudHOU244 pass yds
- RushingWoody MarksHOU71 rush yds
- ReceivingQuentin JohnstonLAC98 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LAC passing attack#20/32HOU pass defense#5/32
- LAC run game#20/32HOU run defense#14/32
- HOU passing attack#10/32LAC pass defense#12/32
- HOU run game#28/32LAC run defense#1/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
HOUHouston Texans
- C.J. StroudQB · 12 games219pass yds/g
- Jawhar JordanRB · 2 games77rush yds/g
- Nico CollinsWR · 14 games75.7rec yds/g
- Dalton SchultzTE · 15 games45.7rec yds/g
LACLos Angeles Chargers
- Justin HerbertQB · 15 games233pass yds/g
- Omarion HamptonRB · 8 games64.5rush yds/g
- Quentin JohnstonWR · 12 games53.1rec yds/g
- Ladd McConkeyWR · 15 games50.5rec yds/g