AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 17 · Final

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, final 23–17

JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars23INDINDIndianapolis Colts17

Pregame first read

JAX passing attack has the stronger league profile.

JAX passing attack #4/32 · IND pass defense #31/32 · 167 offense / 189 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -8
Model total
51
80% range (IND margin)
-22.5 to +11.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • IND passing attack#21/32JAX pass defense#4/32
  • IND run game#29/32JAX run defense#6/32
  • JAX passing attack#4/32IND pass defense#31/32
  • JAX run game#28/32IND run defense#5/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

INDIndianapolis Colts