2025 Week 17 · Final
New England Patriots at New York Jets, final 42–10
Pregame first read
NE passing attack has the stronger league profile.
NE passing attack #5/32 · NYJ pass defense #29/32 · 180 offense / 165 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NE -9.5
- Model total
- 49.5
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -23.8 to +10.2
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingDrake MayeNE256 pass yds
- RushingBreece HallNYJ111 rush yds
- ReceivingStefon DiggsNE101 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#32/32NE pass defense#9/32
- NYJ run game#26/32NE run defense#26/32
- NE passing attack#5/32NYJ pass defense#29/32
- NE run game#7/32NYJ run defense#16/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 15 games263pass yds/g
- TreVeyon HendersonRB · 15 games51.7rush yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 15 games57.9rec yds/g
- Hunter HenryTE · 15 games44.2rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Brady CookQB · 3 games176pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 15 games63.6rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 7 games56.4rec yds/g
- Adonai MitchellWR · 6 games46.5rec yds/g