AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 17 · Final

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills, final 13–12

PHIPHIPhiladelphia Eagles13BUFBUFBuffalo Bills12

Pregame first read

PHI run game has the stronger league profile.

PHI run game #11/32 · BUF run defense #30/32 · 139 offense / 118 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
PHI -1.5
Model total
45.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-16.0 to +18.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#12/32PHI pass defense#2/32
  • BUF run game#3/32PHI run defense#19/32
  • PHI passing attack#11/32BUF pass defense#6/32
  • PHI run game#11/32BUF run defense#30/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles

BUFBuffalo Bills