AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 17 · Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins, final 17–20

TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers17MIAMIAMiami Dolphins20

Pregame first read

MIA pass defense has the stronger league profile.

TB passing attack #27/32 · MIA pass defense #16/32 · 166 offense / 179 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIA -2.5
Model total
45
80% range (MIA margin)
-11.7 to +22.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#19/32TB pass defense#25/32
  • MIA run game#16/32TB run defense#8/32
  • TB passing attack#27/32MIA pass defense#16/32
  • TB run game#12/32MIA run defense#21/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

MIAMiami Dolphins