AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 18 · Final

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 14–16

CARCARCarolina Panthers14TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers16

Pregame first read

TB run game has the stronger league profile.

TB run game #15/32 · CAR run defense #29/32 · 133 offense / 147 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CAR -1.5
Model total
44
80% range (TB margin)
-16.0 to +17.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TB passing attack#19/32CAR pass defense#13/32
  • TB run game#15/32CAR run defense#29/32
  • CAR passing attack#22/32TB pass defense#25/32
  • CAR run game#20/32TB run defense#12/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CARCarolina Panthers

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers