AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 18 · Final

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, final 19–16

DETDETDetroit Lions19CHICHIChicago Bears16

Pregame first read

CHI run game has the stronger league profile.

CHI run game #3/32 · DET run defense #31/32 · 159 offense / 135 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -2.5
Model total
51.5
80% range (CHI margin)
-12.2 to +21.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#11/32DET pass defense#19/32
  • CHI run game#3/32DET run defense#31/32
  • DET passing attack#9/32CHI pass defense#18/32
  • DET run game#31/32CHI run defense#14/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DETDetroit Lions

CHIChicago Bears