AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 18 · Final

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, final 30–38

INDINDIndianapolis Colts30HOUHOUHouston Texans38

Pregame first read

IND run defense has the stronger league profile.

HOU run game #30/32 · IND run defense #5/32 · 151 offense / 141 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -7
Model total
45.5
80% range (HOU margin)
-7.8 to +26.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#10/32IND pass defense#28/32
  • HOU run game#30/32IND run defense#5/32
  • IND passing attack#24/32HOU pass defense#5/32
  • IND run game#29/32HOU run defense#8/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

INDIndianapolis Colts

HOUHouston Texans