2025 Week 18 · Final
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, final 12–14
Pregame first read
KC run defense has the stronger league profile.
LV run game #32/32 · KC run defense #9/32 · 89 offense / 151 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- KC -4.5
- Model total
- 39
- 80% range (LV margin)
- -18.8 to +15.1
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingAidan O'ConnellLV102 pass yds
- RushingAshton JeantyLV87 rush yds
- ReceivingMarquise BrownKC64 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LV passing attack#27/32KC pass defense#24/32
- LV run game#32/32KC run defense#9/32
- KC passing attack#29/32LV pass defense#27/32
- KC run game#15/32LV run defense#16/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 14 games256pass yds/g
- Kareem HuntRB · 16 games37.3rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 8 games71.4rec yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 16 games52.4rec yds/g
LVLas Vegas Raiders
- Geno SmithQB · 15 games202pass yds/g
- Ashton JeantyRB · 16 games55.5rush yds/g
- Brock BowersTE · 12 games56.7rec yds/g
- Jakobi MeyersWR · 7 games50.3rec yds/g