AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 18 · Final

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, final 3–19

LACLACLos Angeles Chargers3DENDENDenver Broncos19

Pregame first read

LAC run defense has the stronger league profile.

DEN run game #17/32 · LAC run defense #1/32 · 132 offense / 116 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
LAC -0.5
Model total
41
80% range (DEN margin)
-15.2 to +18.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#8/32LAC pass defense#10/32
  • DEN run game#17/32LAC run defense#1/32
  • LAC passing attack#16/32DEN pass defense#14/32
  • LAC run game#22/32DEN run defense#17/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LACLos Angeles Chargers

DENDenver Broncos