2025 Week 18 · Final
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, final 10–38
Pregame first read
NE run game has the stronger league profile.
NE run game #6/32 · MIA run defense #19/32 · 136 offense / 119 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NE -5
- Model total
- 46
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -9.3 to +24.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingDrake MayeNE191 pass yds
- RushingRhamondre StevensonNE131 rush yds
- ReceivingHunter HenryNE56 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#1/32MIA pass defense#13/32
- NE run game#6/32MIA run defense#19/32
- MIA passing attack#21/32NE pass defense#9/32
- MIA run game#14/32NE run defense#24/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
MIAMiami Dolphins
- Tua TagovailoaQB · 14 games190pass yds/g
- De'Von AchaneRB · 16 games84.4rush yds/g
- Tyreek HillWR · 4 games66.3rec yds/g
- Jaylen WaddleWR · 16 games56.9rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 16 games263pass yds/g
- TreVeyon HendersonRB · 16 games53.6rush yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 16 games60.6rec yds/g
- Hunter HenryTE · 16 games44.5rec yds/g