AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 18 · Final

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, final 17–19

NONONew Orleans Saints17ATLATLAtlanta Falcons19

Pregame first read

ATL run defense has the stronger league profile.

NO run game #26/32 · ATL run defense #13/32 · 129 offense / 118 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NO -1.5
Model total
44.5
80% range (ATL margin)
-15.8 to +18.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#13/32NO pass defense#4/32
  • ATL run game#18/32NO run defense#10/32
  • NO passing attack#12/32ATL pass defense#15/32
  • NO run game#26/32ATL run defense#13/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NONew Orleans Saints

ATLAtlanta Falcons