AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 18 · Final

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, final 8–35

NYJNYJNew York Jets8BUFBUFBuffalo Bills35

Pregame first read

BUF pass defense has the stronger league profile.

NYJ passing attack #32/32 · BUF pass defense #6/32 · 189 offense / 150 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -9
Model total
48.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-5.5 to +28.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#14/32NYJ pass defense#31/32
  • BUF run game#4/32NYJ run defense#15/32
  • NYJ passing attack#32/32BUF pass defense#6/32
  • NYJ run game#20/32BUF run defense#30/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NYJNew York Jets

BUFBuffalo Bills