AUGRISOpen research

2025 Postseason week 19 · Final

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 27–24

BUFBUFBuffalo Bills27JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars24

Pregame first read

JAX passing attack has the stronger league profile.

JAX passing attack #2/32 · BUF pass defense #9/32 · 177 offense / 149 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -5.5
Model total
49
80% range (JAX margin)
-8.9 to +24.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#2/32BUF pass defense#9/32
  • JAX run game#29/32BUF run defense#30/32
  • BUF passing attack#5/32JAX pass defense#4/32
  • BUF run game#3/32JAX run defense#8/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

JAXJacksonville Jaguars