AUGRISOpen research

2025 Postseason week 19 · Final

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers, final 30–6

HOUHOUHouston Texans30PITPITPittsburgh Steelers6

Pregame first read

PIT run defense has the stronger league profile.

HOU run game #30/32 · PIT run defense #7/32 · 149 offense / 117 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -2.5
Model total
43.5
80% range (PIT margin)
-16.6 to +17.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • PIT passing attack#12/32HOU pass defense#5/32
  • PIT run game#4/32HOU run defense#11/32
  • HOU passing attack#15/32PIT pass defense#19/32
  • HOU run game#30/32PIT run defense#7/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

HOUHouston Texans

PITPittsburgh Steelers