2025 Postseason week 19 · Final
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, final 3–16
Pregame first read
NE pass defense has the stronger league profile.
LAC passing attack #28/32 · NE pass defense #11/32 · 177 offense / 142 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NE -6
- Model total
- 44
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -8.4 to +25.4
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingDrake MayeNE268 pass yds
- RushingDrake MayeNE66 rush yds
- ReceivingRhamondre StevensonNE75 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#1/32LAC pass defense#10/32
- NE run game#1/32LAC run defense#1/32
- LAC passing attack#28/32NE pass defense#11/32
- LAC run game#17/32NE run defense#18/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
LACLos Angeles Chargers
- Justin HerbertQB · 16 games233pass yds/g
- Omarion HamptonRB · 9 games60.6rush yds/g
- Quentin JohnstonWR · 13 games56.5rec yds/g
- Ladd McConkeyWR · 16 games49.3rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 17 games258pass yds/g
- TreVeyon HendersonRB · 17 games53.6rush yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 17 games59.6rec yds/g
- Hunter HenryTE · 17 games45.2rec yds/g