2025 Week 2 · Final

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, final 33–27

NENENew England Patriots33MIAMIAMiami Dolphins27

Pregame first read

MIA run defense has the stronger league profile.

NE run game #32/32 · MIA run defense #11/32 · 119 offense / 125 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: MIA -4.5
Model total: 44
80% range (MIA margin): -8.7 to +23.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingTua TagovailoaMIA315 pass yds
RushingRhamondre StevensonNE54 rush yds
ReceivingTyreek HillMIA109 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

MIA passing attack#27/32NE pass defense#28/32
MIA run game#23/32NE run defense#14/32
NE passing attack#19/32MIA pass defense#7/32
NE run game#32/32MIA run defense#11/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

Not enough recorded games yet.

MIAMiami Dolphins

Not enough recorded games yet.