2025 Week 2 · Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans, final 20–19

TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers20HOUHOUHouston Texans19

Pregame first read

TB run defense has the stronger league profile.

HOU run game #11/32 · TB run defense #1/32 · 132 offense / 107 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: TB -6
Model total: 43
80% range (HOU margin): -19.4 to +13.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingBaker MayfieldTB215 pass yds
RushingBucky IrvingTB71 rush yds
ReceivingMike EvansTB56 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

HOU passing attack#29/32TB pass defense#23/32
HOU run game#11/32TB run defense#1/32
TB passing attack#1/32HOU pass defense#9/32
TB run game#8/32HOU run defense#5/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

Not enough recorded games yet.

HOUHouston Texans

Not enough recorded games yet.