AUGRISOpen research

2025 Postseason week 20 · Final

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos, final 30–33

BUFBUFBuffalo Bills30DENDENDenver Broncos33

Pregame first read

BUF run game has the stronger league profile.

BUF run game #3/32 · DEN run defense #19/32 · 156 offense / 99 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -1.5
Model total
43.5
80% range (DEN margin)
-16.1 to +17.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#9/32BUF pass defense#4/32
  • DEN run game#21/32BUF run defense#31/32
  • BUF passing attack#7/32DEN pass defense#6/32
  • BUF run game#3/32DEN run defense#19/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

DENDenver Broncos