2025 Postseason week 20 · Final
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, final 16–28
Pregame first read
NE run game has the stronger league profile.
NE run game #1/32 · HOU run defense #7/32 · 137 offense / 116 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NE -2
- Model total
- 45.5
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -12.3 to +21.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingC.J. StroudHOU212 pass yds
- RushingRhamondre StevensonNE70 rush yds
- ReceivingKayshon BoutteNE75 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#1/32HOU pass defense#4/32
- NE run game#1/32HOU run defense#7/32
- HOU passing attack#13/32NE pass defense#8/32
- HOU run game#22/32NE run defense#17/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
HOUHouston Texans
- C.J. StroudQB · 14 games217pass yds/g
- Jawhar JordanRB · 4 games48.3rush yds/g
- Nico CollinsWR · 15 games74.5rec yds/g
- Dalton SchultzTE · 17 games45.7rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 17 games258pass yds/g
- TreVeyon HendersonRB · 17 games53.6rush yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 17 games59.6rec yds/g
- Hunter HenryTE · 17 games45.2rec yds/g