AUGRISOpen research

2025 Postseason week 21 · Final

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, final 10–7

NENENew England Patriots10DENDENDenver Broncos7

Pregame first read

NE run defense has the stronger league profile.

DEN run game #28/32 · NE run defense #8/32 · 127 offense / 129 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -5
Model total
46.5
80% range (DEN margin)
-19.3 to +14.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#10/32NE pass defense#2/32
  • DEN run game#28/32NE run defense#8/32
  • NE passing attack#2/32DEN pass defense#10/32
  • NE run game#8/32DEN run defense#24/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

DENDenver Broncos