AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 3 · Final

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, final 20–23

DENDENDenver Broncos20LACLACLos Angeles Chargers23

Pregame first read

DEN run defense has the stronger league profile.

LAC run game #24/32 · DEN run defense #8/32 · 135 offense / 132 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DEN -0.5
Model total
48.5
80% range (LAC margin)
-14.0 to +18.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • LAC passing attack#4/32DEN pass defense#17/32
  • LAC run game#24/32DEN run defense#8/32
  • DEN passing attack#5/32LAC pass defense#1/32
  • DEN run game#16/32LAC run defense#9/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DENDenver Broncos

LACLos Angeles Chargers