AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 3 · Final

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 10–17

HOUHOUHouston Texans10JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars17

Pregame first read

JAX pass defense has the stronger league profile.

HOU passing attack #29/32 · JAX pass defense #5/32 · 159 offense / 202 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -1.5
Model total
38.5
80% range (JAX margin)
-12.2 to +20.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#16/32HOU pass defense#6/32
  • JAX run game#15/32HOU run defense#5/32
  • HOU passing attack#29/32JAX pass defense#5/32
  • HOU run game#7/32JAX run defense#16/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

HOUHouston Texans

JAXJacksonville Jaguars