2025 Week 3 · Final

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, final 22–9

KCKCKansas City Chiefs22NYGNYGNew York Giants9

Pregame first read

KC run defense has the stronger league profile.

NYG run game #28/32 · KC run defense #18/32 · 108 offense / 157 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: KC -3
Model total: 46.5
80% range (NYG margin): -16.2 to +16.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingPatrick MahomesKC224 pass yds
RushingCam SkatteboNYG60 rush yds
ReceivingTyquan ThorntonKC71 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

NYG passing attack#20/32KC pass defense#29/32
NYG run game#28/32KC run defense#18/32
KC passing attack#21/32NYG pass defense#25/32
KC run game#10/32NYG run defense#12/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

Patrick MahomesQB · 2 games223pass yds/g
Isiah PachecoRB · 2 games23.5rush yds/g
Marquise BrownWR · 2 games64.5rec yds/g
Travis KelceTE · 2 games54rec yds/g

NYGNew York Giants

Russell WilsonQB · 2 games309pass yds/g
Cam SkatteboRB · 2 games21rush yds/g
Malik NabersWR · 2 games119rec yds/g
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · 2 games98.5rec yds/g