AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 3 · Final

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, final 21–31

MIAMIAMiami Dolphins21BUFBUFBuffalo Bills31

Pregame first read

BUF run game has the stronger league profile.

BUF run game #2/32 · MIA run defense #20/32 · 175 offense / 136 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -6
Model total
48
80% range (BUF margin)
-7.5 to +25.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#5/32MIA pass defense#14/32
  • BUF run game#2/32MIA run defense#20/32
  • MIA passing attack#25/32BUF pass defense#23/32
  • MIA run game#18/32BUF run defense#22/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

BUFBuffalo Bills