2025 Week 3 · Final
New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 27–29
Pregame first read
TB passing attack has the stronger league profile.
TB passing attack #1/32 · NYJ pass defense #22/32 · 162 offense / 154 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- TB -8
- Model total
- 49
- 80% range (TB margin)
- -5.4 to +27.2
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingBaker MayfieldTB233 pass yds
- RushingBucky IrvingTB66 rush yds
- ReceivingEmeka EgbukaTB85 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- TB passing attack#1/32NYJ pass defense#22/32
- TB run game#8/32NYJ run defense#21/32
- NYJ passing attack#22/32TB pass defense#15/32
- NYJ run game#26/32TB run defense#6/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
NYJNew York Jets
- Justin FieldsQB · 2 games123pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 2 games68rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 2 games72.5rec yds/g
- Tyler JohnsonWR · 2 games15.5rec yds/g
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · 2 games191pass yds/g
- Bucky IrvingRB · 2 games54rush yds/g
- Mike EvansWR · 2 games53.5rec yds/g
- Emeka EgbukaWR · 2 games48rec yds/g