2025 Week 3 · Final
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, final 21–14
Pregame first read
NE passing attack has the stronger league profile.
NE passing attack #15/32 · PIT pass defense #31/32 · 173 offense / 169 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- PK
- Model total
- 46
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -13.3 to +19.3
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingDrake MayeNE268 pass yds
- RushingJaylen WarrenPIT47 rush yds
- ReceivingHunter HenryNE90 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#15/32PIT pass defense#31/32
- NE run game#31/32PIT run defense#24/32
- PIT passing attack#27/32NE pass defense#30/32
- PIT run game#20/32NE run defense#10/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
PITPittsburgh Steelers
- Aaron RodgersQB · 2 games224pass yds/g
- Jaylen WarrenRB · 2 games42.5rush yds/g
- DK MetcalfWR · 2 games51.5rec yds/g
- Calvin Austin IIIWR · 2 games46rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 2 games259pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 2 games34.5rush yds/g
- Kayshon BoutteWR · 2 games59.5rec yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 2 games44.5rec yds/g