AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 4 · Final

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs, final 20–37

BALBALBaltimore Ravens20KCKCKansas City Chiefs37

Pregame first read

KC run game has the stronger league profile.

KC run game #8/32 · BAL run defense #30/32 · 111 offense / 131 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BAL -7.5
Model total
49
80% range (KC margin)
-20.6 to +11.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • KC passing attack#17/32BAL pass defense#12/32
  • KC run game#8/32BAL run defense#30/32
  • BAL passing attack#1/32KC pass defense#22/32
  • BAL run game#3/32KC run defense#16/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BALBaltimore Ravens

KCKansas City Chiefs