AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 4 · Final

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders, final 25–24

CHICHIChicago Bears25LVLVLas Vegas Raiders24

Pregame first read

LV run defense has the stronger league profile.

CHI run game #27/32 · LV run defense #7/32 · 129 offense / 121 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
LV -2.5
Model total
42.5
80% range (LV margin)
-10.5 to +22.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • LV passing attack#15/32CHI pass defense#8/32
  • LV run game#31/32CHI run defense#17/32
  • CHI passing attack#22/32LV pass defense#25/32
  • CHI run game#27/32LV run defense#7/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CHIChicago Bears

LVLas Vegas Raiders