AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 4 · Final

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos, final 3–28

CINCINCincinnati Bengals3DENDENDenver Broncos28

Pregame first read

DEN run defense has the stronger league profile.

CIN run game #28/32 · DEN run defense #8/32 · 108 offense / 133 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DEN -1
Model total
46.5
80% range (DEN margin)
-12.2 to +20.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#8/32CIN pass defense#19/32
  • DEN run game#15/32CIN run defense#11/32
  • CIN passing attack#27/32DEN pass defense#11/32
  • CIN run game#28/32DEN run defense#8/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CINCincinnati Bengals

DENDenver Broncos