AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 4 · Final

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams, final 20–27

INDINDIndianapolis Colts20LALALos Angeles Rams27

Pregame first read

IND run game has the stronger league profile.

IND run game #5/32 · LA run defense #28/32 · 164 offense / 133 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
LA -0.5
Model total
48.5
80% range (LA margin)
-12.9 to +19.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • LA passing attack#11/32IND pass defense#13/32
  • LA run game#20/32IND run defense#13/32
  • IND passing attack#3/32LA pass defense#2/32
  • IND run game#5/32LA run defense#28/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

INDIndianapolis Colts

LALos Angeles Rams